It is no secret that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) will be meeting this week, Saturday to discuss the fate of the Michigan and Florida delegates. The objective of the meeting is to discuss the manner in which we count those delegates of Florida and Michigan and what role they will continue to play in the party’s upcoming Democratic Convention.
When you look at how we got here, you will remember that the DNC set a schedule of when states would hold their Primary elections. The understanding is that New Hampshire goes first or at the beginning of the primary schedule so the new state schedule would be adjusted to accommodate this fact.
In an effort to include diversity, the DNC held open meetings for each state to present their case as to why their primary date should be moved up. The decision was to have South Carolina, a state of predominantly African Americans, and Nevada, a state with a large population of Hispanic votes and Union represented workers be moved to the beginning of the primary schedule.
In an act of defiance, both Florida and Michigan violated their scheduled dates in the primary. It is said that Michigan did so to ensure that there was an enormous amount of focus on the state’s loss of jobs and plant closures due to the impact of the declining Auto industry. They, being the Michigan Democratic party, believed this violation of the Primary date would bring much needed attention to this issue during the Democratic campaign.
Which brings us to where we are today, where the DNC is meeting to discuss the seating of delegates from both states. Chuck Todd, Political Director of MSNBC News, states the following Scenarios may occur:
*** Possible scenario I: One plan circulating that seems to be gaining momentum: the DNC would halve the votes for all of the Florida delegates, netting Clinton 19 and, more importantly, counting that popular vote. But Michigan’s primary results would not be accepted and instead that state’s delegates would simply be split 50-50 between Clinton and Obama. All of the delegations, under this compromise, would be seated in full, but each delegate’s vote would be counted as 0.5, including the superdelegates. (Keep in mind, when the nine — cut to 4.5 in this scenario — Edwards’ pledged delegates are factored in for Obama, that reduces Clinton’s net to 14.5.) Should this compromise pass, it would mean the new magic number for nomination would be 2,118. And according to the math (bringing Obama’s delegate total to 2,060 with the Edwards delegates, and Clinton’s to 1,876.5), that would put Obama 58 total delegates away from the nomination. Assuming that Obama gets 43 of the 86 remaining pledged delegates from Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota, he would need just 15 more superdelegates to clinch the nomination under this scenario.
*** Possible scenario II: Another resolution would be cutting both state delegations by 50% according to how the primary vote went (and giving Obama Michigan’s uncommitted vote). That would give Clinton a net of 19 in Florida and nine in Michigan for a total of 28. The magic number here also is 2,118, and it would put Obama 62.5 delegates away from clinching the nomination. Assuming Obama splits the remaining pledged delegates, Obama would need 19.5 more superdelegates to clinch the nomination.
*** Possible scenario III: Another scenario floated is a 50% cut of the pledged delegates in both states according to the primary vote, but keep superdelegates at 100%. That would make the magic number 2,131. Obama then would be 65.5 delegates away (and Clinton 242.5). Indeed, the maximum Clinton could pick up as a result of Saturday’s Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting is 91. That’s what Clinton would gain if she gets the delegates seated according to the discounted primary results in Florida and Michigan — and Obama gets zero out of Michigan, because he doesn’t get any of Michigan’s “uncommitted” vote. If that maximum solution were to happen, Obama’s 161 pledged delegate lead would be cut to 70. But such a scenario at this point seems like, well, a fairy tale. It’s just not going to happen.
All scenarios still have Sen. Obama winning the majority of the delegates and walking away with the nomination well in hand, barring any major Gaffe or assassination attempt. Keep in mind, this only became a problem when Sen. Obama took the lead and Sen. Clinton realized that there was no way she could win.
The words of Father Pfleger resonate with some air of truth. However their timing and delivery only add more fuel for Pundits and Clinton supporters to distract the country with bunk vs. subjects that are real, i.e. the Iraq war, the Economy, the Housing Crisis, Foreign Policy, etc. View Clip Below
I find that this is all a distraction to keep our minds off focusing on the overall issue at hand, i.e. defeating the Republican party in November. I still stand on what I said before… come June 3, there be a nominee and the beginnings of unification within the Democratic party.
by Cireal Americanus